PUMP Newsletter

Post-Shutdown Backlogs Hit Federal Workers Hard

Federal agencies processed 450,000 paychecks by 2 p.m. yesterday, but a 2.5 million-case backlog in SBA loans and VA disability claims forces 24/7 shifts for 120,000 IRS employees, per Treasury data. Smithsonian reports 70% of tour bookings canceled during the freeze, with refunds stalled for 50,000 visitors. Trump's OMB director Shalanda Young claimed 90% operational by weekend, but AFGE union president Everett Kelley logged 18,000 overtime complaints in the first 12 hours.

Oversight Democrats, led by Rep. Stephen Lynch, subpoenaed shutdown logs showing $450 million in pre-freeze idle contracts, calling it Trump-engineered bottlenecks. GOP Rep. James Comer countered with a memo blaming Dem delays on $200 million in unvetted green grants. Vendors filed 3,500 small claims totaling $1.3 billion in D.C. courts.

GAO projects full clearance by mid-January, overlapping debt ceiling votes on $35 trillion borrowing. If Trump links backlog fixes to deportation funds, unions threaten strikes affecting 200,000 workers. For now, VA hospitals triage 15,000 delayed surgeries, relief's here, but the queue's endless.

Trump's Approval Dips Below 50% in Fresh Polls

Reuters/Ipsos polled 1,200 adults November 13-14, landing Trump's overall approval at 48%, with a 41% economic rating as 68% of independents fault him for 12% airfare spikes from controller shortages. Crosstabs show suburban women down 10 points to 42%, citing delayed WIC benefits for 1.5 million moms but Trump hit Fox & Friends calling it pollster lies, stocks up 2% today proves winners.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) cited the numbers in a Senate floor speech, saying "48% says voters reject chaos over competence, pass the audits now." GOP strategists like Whit Ayres told Politico private trackers show Latino approval at 29%, with focus groups in Reno blasting refund waits killed holiday budgets. Base approval clings at 86%, but battleground margins shrank to 1.8 points in Pennsylvania.

2026 midterms pivot on these trends, if below 45% by January, 25 House GOP seats flip risks rise. Advisors float $1,200 tariff rebates for households, but CBO warns 0.8% inflation add. Trump's rally circuit starts Friday in Ohio, expect fake polls chants to test the slide.

Epstein Files Leak Stokes Bipartisan Fury

Southern District court unsealed 5,000 pages November 13, listing 15 current/former lawmakers, eight Democrats, seven Republicans in logs, including a 1998 email from Epstein to Trump aide: "POTUS invite for the 4^th, keep discreet." No charges tied, but Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) filed for special counsel, stating Bipartisan rot demands independent probe. Trump's comms director Steven Cheung labeled it Clinton rerun, files prove my ban in 2007.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a disclosure co-sponsor, demanded floor time:

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) linked it to Boebert's Oval chat, calling timing shutdown smoke screen. Judiciary hearings start November 20, with 25 subpoenas queued for donors. Trump strategy, amplify Bill ties, risk is his 2002 quote resurfacing. Midterms weaponize it, expect $5 million in attack ads if probes drag.

Trump Would Have Lost on 2020 Overturn Charges

Special Counsel Jack Smith's 137-page report, from the Justice Department, lays out how Donald Trump would have been convicted for illegally trying to flip the 2020 election results if his 2024 win hadn't shut down the case. It spells out his push with bogus fraud claims, arm-twisting state officials, and stoking the January 6 riot, evidence strong enough for a guilty verdict at trial. Smith calls it an "unprecedented assault" on power transfer, backed by witness statements and records from 14 witnesses who flipped. For more on this:

Trump fired back quick, labeling the whole thing fake and Smith deranged on social media, insisting he did nothing wrong and the Constitution shields sitting presidents from prosecution. The cases got dropped post-election, but Smith pushes back hard, saying Trump's gripes are laughable and his probe stayed laser-focused on facts, not politics. No sitting president can face charges, so it's moot now, but the report hits Congress after fights in court, including a green light from Judge Aileen Cannon for partial release.

Trump Skips G20 Summit in Johannesburg

Trump's formal dispatch November 13 spells out, Domestic rebuilds outrank elite powwows, tasking VP Vance with $130 billion debt forgiveness pitches and $140 billion in green transition funds for November 22-24 sessions. Ramaphosa shot back to BBC "This gap undermines fair trade dialogues, America cedes the table." Trump followed on Truth Social "Vance delivers results; I'll seal deals from D.C. on real threats like cartels.”

Brazil's Lula flagged Reuters on $80 billion soybean exposure risks, while the U.S. Chamber tallied a 7% export contraction from sidelined pacts. Vance logged 14 bilateral huddles November 14, vowing commitments stand firm, no absence excuses. Vance's spotlight tests 2028 footing, stumbles forfeit $350 billion in leverage on steel quotas. Locked agreements let Trump barnstorm Rust Belt, cracks open $250 billion in concessions. BRICS' Sao Paulo follow-up dangles invites to 20 nations, U.S. benchwarms at its peril.

Venezuela Naval Ops Draw First Intercepts

USS Carney seized 1.4 tons from a Sinaloa-linked go-fast 35 miles off Puerto Cabello November 13, followed by USS Gravely's 0.8-ton haul from a Colombian-flagged trawler, per DoD manifest released today, total $48 million street value, with 18 crew held at Guantanamo for processing. Adm. Franchetti's Hill brief detailed drone spotters guiding the takedowns, zero U.S. injuries; Trump posted "Cartels on notice, America's seas, America's rules," tying it to 28% drop in Texas fentanyl ER visits this quarter. INTERPOL traces 42% of U.S. supply to Maduro ports.

Gil's UN filing accuses extraterritorial aggression, with Venezuela suspending 15,000 barrels/day to U.S. refineries, CFR's O'Neil models 10% flow cut short-term but 50% cartel pivot to Pacific routes, upping California busts 35%.  Senate Appropriations votes $700 million sustainment December 10, covering 6-month extension for 4 destroyers. Metrics: 20% price hike sustains, below invites $200 million clawback. Florida ports report 18% container scans up, trade feels the pinch first.

Democrats Grapple with Shutdown Strategy Flaws

The DNC's leaked 65-page review pins a 44% base turnout dip in Michigan on 28% unemployment spikes from 4,500 vendor closures, while Arizona chapters clock 51% distrust after 20% SNAP shortfalls left 1.2 million families short $250 monthly. Harrison's doc calls for targeted holds on 15 Trump cabinet picks instead of full CR blocks, logging $2.3 billion in forfeited rural broadband grants as the shutdown's top miss.

Rep. Angie Craig, one of seven crossovers, told MSNBC her vote unlocked 10,200 VA appointments in her district: "Numbers beat narratives, my reelection's on delivery, not division." The memo outlines 14-state pilots for $17/hour wage floors and 18 ballot measures shielding abortion access up to viability.

The January Florida retreat redraws the 2026 battlefield, with FEC filings showing 25% YTD donor pauses totaling $18 million frozen. Roll out 20 precision bills on housing vouchers to lift turnout 10 points in urban cores, skip it, and Green Party pulls 7% in six cities per Siena polls. Schumer's teeing up a $12 billion farm relief tweak vote Monday, pass it clean, and momentum builds; stall, and fractures deepen.

GOP Launches Latino Ad Blitz Amid Poll Slump

RNC's $16 million push, 60% on TikTok and Instagram Reels, rolls out November 14 across 22 markets, centering 250,000 Hispanic veterans who netted $1 billion in expedited backpay post-shutdown, scripted with a Laredo vet: "Trump fast-tracked my benefits, Dems fast-tracked the freeze." Pew's daily tracker hits 30% approval November 14, with 80% pinning 14% tortilla surges on border delays.

DCCC chair David Bergstein dubbed it fiscal flailing, highlighting 66% Democratic sweeps in three Texas specials where turnout topped 58%. RNC chair Michael Whatley pledged 70 town halls in border counties and $6 million in Spanish podcasts, claiming 35% uptick in Latino SBA loans since January. But Pew's deep dive flags 28% deportation anxiety as the deadweight, with 62% of women under 40 citing family raid fears in exit chats.

The blitz hunts an 8-point bump by March primaries to defend 18 seats, locking 50% of Telemundo and Univision slots through June. Claw back 2024's 46% high-water mark or hand nine purple districts blue, per NRCC models. Biweekly focus groups in Phoenix and Orlando shave attack lines 15%, softer on walls, heavier on wallets.

That’s all for today, thanks for reading.

We’ll see you tomorrow!

— The PUMP Team