PUMP Newsletter

35 Days of Pain, With No End in Sight

The federal shutdown hit day 36, edging out the 35-day beast from Trump's first term over wall funding in 2018-19, making it the longest in U.S. history. Congress is frozen in a standoff where Dems won't budge on extending ACA subsidies for 21 million Americans, and Trump's veto pen stays locked on any bill without $11 billion in border security extras.

The fallout's not abstract. So far the cost is at $20 billion and climbing, with $1 billion bleeding daily from lost productivity, think furloughed IRS agents delaying tax refunds, national parks ghost towns, and air traffic controllers pulling 14-hour shifts unpaid. But behind closed doors, hope flickers. Senior White House aides are looping with GOP senators quietly chatting Dem counterparts, per Federal News Network, aiming to reboot normal funding tracks without the drama. But with midterms a year out and off-year losses fresh (Dems netting 12 House seats), pressure's mounting.

Johnson's House passed a clean bill September 19, but Senate filibuster math (needing 60 votes) keeps it stalled. Nuclear option whispers grow, ditch the filibuster for solo passage? but four GOP moderates (Collins, Murkowski, etc.) signal red lines after tariff rebukes. For Trump, it's a self-inflicted scar, his no surrender stance rallies the base but alienates burbs.

Progressive's Anti-Trump Jab Lights Up Election Night

Last night's results weren't just a win for Democrats, they were a referendum on the Trump-era mess, with blues sweeping key races from coast to coast and sending a loud enough to the shutdown stranglehold. Zohran Mamdani's stunning upset as New York City mayor, pulling 50.4% to Andrew Cuomo's 41.6% and Curtis Sliwa's distant 7.1%, a margin of nearly 9 points that shocked even his own camp.

Mamdani, the progressive firebrand, turned out the youth vote at 70% under-30 support, hammering oligarchy and authoritarianism in a victory speech that took direct aim at Trump.

Nationally, the haul was massive: Mikie Sherrill cruised to New Jersey governor with double digits over Jack Ciattarelli, making opposition to Trump's chaos her centerpiece: "We're done with the games that hurt families," she said post-win.

Virginia went blue too, with Abigail Spanberger edging out her foe 51-49, while Dems netted 12 House seats and two legislative chambers. Youth turnout surged 15%, suburban women broke 55% blue on economic gripes, and 58% of voters flat-out named the shutdown as their top beef, 62% of independents punished Republicans for it.  Trump's shadow loomed without his name on the ballot: Primary purges left hardliners exposed, and base hold at 85% couldn't offset the crossover collapse.

Trump Blame’s Shutdown Post-Loss

Donald Trump didn't let the sun rise on defeat Wednesday—his Truth Social salvo hit at 5 a.m.

This is deflection dialed to 11 after Dems' sweep, netting 12 House seats and governorships in VA and NJ, but the data backs his gripe, exit polls from ClickOrlando show 58% of voters fingering gridlock as the villain, with independents at 62% anti-GOP.

The shutdown's shadow eclipsed everything, 62% in Virginia called it personal hardship, tying unpaid feds to family budgets. Trump's not wrong on the math, his approval's steady at 42% among base, but dipped to 35% in suburbs where women swung 55% blue on economic woes.

Meanwhile in the white house, memos to Hill GOP hammer Dems' obstruction over ACA, prepping ads for '26. But insiders leak doubt, tariff rebukes from Senate moderates (four flipped on Canada duties) signal fractures. Trump's fix? Vow big league revenge, primary RINOs. Last night's L, a '26 harbinger if shutdown lingers, voters punish pain, not promises. Blame's easy; governing's the grind.

White House Memos Flood Hill

The White House is bombarding GOP senators with shutdown talking points, "Democratic obstructionism over ACA is the real villain" as a playbook to spin last night's losses and rally for '26. Leaked memos urge frame it as their surrender demand, tying veto threats to expiring subsidies for 21 million. This lands raw after Dems' romp, 12 House flips, VA gov to blue, where exits showed 58% voters raging at gridlock. Trump's Truth echoed that the shutdown has cost them but four GOP moderates balk at nuclear filibuster after tariff votes, fearing suburban bleed (women 55% Dem). AP tallies the toll: $20B hit, VA delays 30%, markets -400 Dow.

For reds, it's recalibrate time, base buys the line (85% turnout), but crossover's gone (35% indies). Dems counter with cruelty ads, leveraging SNAP patch wins. Spin or strategy? With '26 looming, memos are lifelines, or last gasps.

Supreme Court Takes Aim at Trump's Tariff Power

The Supreme Court is set to grill Trump's tariff strategy in a case from Learning Resources, a Chicago-area toy maker slammed with $12 million in extra costs from duties on Chinese imports. The family-run firm, known for brain-teasers like Kanoodle, argues Trump overreached the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which doesn't explicitly allow tariffs without Congress.

CEO Rick Woldenberg sued in April 2025 after costs spiked from 10% to 145% duties (now 30%), forcing price hikes and production shifts to Vietnam. A lower court sided with them in May, citing the major questions doctrine, big economic moves need clear congressional OK. DOJ counters IEEPA's broad import powers cover it, especially against China's IP theft and fentanyl.

A plaintiff win could refund billions and curb exec trade guns; loss hands presidents freer rein. Holiday toy sales could dip 2.5% if duties stick, per Circana. Coin toss, but stakes are sky-high, dealmaker checked or unleashed?

Trump Mulls Strikes to Oust Venezuela's Maduro

President Trump edged closer to military adventurism, weighing options to topple Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, including cartel bombings, special ops raids, or outright invasion to seize oil fields. Advisers presented plans in a Situation Room huddle, with Trump musing Maduro's days are numbered. The blueprint ties regime change to crippling sanctions, aiming to flood U.S. markets with cheap crude amid global price volatility.

The saber-rattling rallies hawks like Lindsey Graham, who praised it as moral clarity against socialism, but alarms isolationists. Rand Paul warned of quagmire echoes, citing Iraq costs topping $2 trillion. Democrats blasted it as wag-the-dog diversion from shutdown woes, with Hakeem Jeffries demanding congressional briefings. Lula da Silva threatened a direct call to Trump if COP30 negotiators stall on Amazon protections.

Venezuela's 300,000 barrels daily output tempts, but experts flag blowback; refugee surges, Russian alliances. Polls show 48% opposition to intervention, with 62% of Republicans wary post-Afghanistan.

That’s all for today, thanks for reading.

We’ll see you tomorrow!

— The PUMP Team