PUMP Newsletter

Democrats' Election Wins Show Trump's Coalition Cracking

The off-year results Tuesday night were a wake-up for Republicans as Democrats not only held their ground but gained, flipping 12 House seats and governors in Virginia and New Jersey while Zohran Mamdani took New York City mayor with 50.4%. Trump's 2024 coalition, working-class folks, youth, and some minorities, is fraying fast, with 58% of voters in these races pointing to the shutdown as their breaking point.

In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger won 51-49 by making the gridlock personal, 60% of voters said it hit their families, from unpaid federal workers to VA delays. New Jersey's Mikie Sherrill cruised by double digits on the same theme, with 65% blaming D.C. dysfunction." Mamdani's NYC win drew 70% of under-30s, who showed up 15% more than last time, fed up with the chaos. Trump's approval is down to 42% overall, 35% in suburbs where women went 55% Democrat.

Republicans held their base at 85% turnout, but the middle walked, only 35% of independents stuck with them. It's not just the shutdown, tariffs and veto threats added to the pile. For 2026, Democrats have momentum if they keep pushing ACA fixes. Trump's not on the ballot, but his style is, and it's costing seats. Voters are saying they want results, not standoffs.

An Immigrant Story Taking on Trump

Zohran Mamdani's victory for New York City mayor was one of those moments that sticks, 50.4% to Andrew Cuomo's 41.6% and Curtis Sliwa's 7.1%, a 9-point margin that caught everyone off guard. The Ugandan-born democratic socialist went right at Trump:

It's a line that's getting a lot of play, with people on both sides reacting strongly. Mamdani ran on a people's budget, tax billionaires, cut corporate handouts, and it clicked because the shutdown made people pay attention. 70% of under-30 voters backed him, part of a 15% youth turnout increase where 58% said gridlock was the top problem. Cuomo's old scandals sank him, and Sliwa's conservative approach didn't move the needle.

Mamdani's story as an immigrant leading the biggest city stands out as a direct challenge to Trump's border focus. Republicans will call him radical, but with 62% of independents tired of the shutdown, his message is landing. For the 2026 midterms, it's proof that progressives can win when things feel broken. Mamdani's not just the new mayor, he's a symbol now.

Trump Calls New York Mayor-Elect Mamdani a "Communist."

Trump couldn't let Zohran Mamdani's upset win as New York City mayor slide, he posted on Truth Social Wednesday calling him a "communist" but added he'd help the city succeed if Mamdani respects Washington. Mamdani, who took 50.4% Tuesday on a platform to tax the rich and fix local problems, fired back in his speech: "New York will remain a city of immigrants. To get any of us, you'll have to get through all of us."

It's a direct shot at Trump's border focus, and it landed with 70% of under-30 voters in NYC. Trump's post got quick pushback, city officials say federal aid for things like housing and transit is non-negotiable, and Mamdani's team called it empty threats from a lame duck.

This is Trump being Trump, stir the pot after a loss, but it risks alienating New York Republicans ahead of 2026. Mamdani's win was part of Democrats' sweep, and if Trump keeps swinging, it just gives the new mayor more ammo. Respect or not, New York's got its own path, and Trump's not on it.

Supreme Court Hears Trump's Tariff Case

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on whether Trump can use a 1977 emergency law to slap tariffs on imports without Congress weighing in, and it's coming from a small Chicago toy company that's fighting for its life. Learning Resources, which makes educational games like puzzles and cash registers, sued after tariffs added $12 million to their costs from Chinese manufacturing, duties that jumped from 10% to 145% before settling at 30%.

The company argues the International Emergency Economic Powers Act doesn't cover tariffs explicitly, and a lower court agreed in May under the major questions doctrine, saying big economic moves need clear congressional approval. Trump's team says the law gives presidents broad power to regulate imports during threats like China's IP theft.

A loss could refund billions and limit Trump's trade tools, forcing him to get Congress on board for future duties. Holiday sales for toys might drop 2.5% if prices stay high, per industry data. It's a test of executive power in his second term, dealmaker or dictator? The justices seem split, but a ruling by January could change how trade wars work. For that toy company, it's about survival and for the country, it's about who holds the wallet strings.

Kash Patel's Epstein Testimony

Kash Patel, Trump's FBI director, testified before Senate and House Judiciary Committees, and the Jeffrey Epstein files turned it into a fireworks show. Epstein was a side note in the Senate, but it dominated the House, where Democrats went after Patel with questions about transparency and Trump's ties to the case. Patel pushed back hard, sometimes getting personal, which made for some tense moments. For more on this:

One big flashpoint was Trump's name in the files. Rep. Eric Swalwell asked nine times if Patel told Attorney General Pam Bondi about it, Patel dodged, saying he'd talked about releases but not specifics.

Rep. Ted Lieu pressed if Trump or Prince Andrew were on a client list Patel said no such list exists, but the FBI released an index of names. When Lieu asked about photos of Trump with underage girls, Patel flat-out said no, adding that if they existed, past administrations would have leaked them to hurt Trump.

Democrats want full file disclosure, suspecting cover-ups, and a House discharge petition by Rep. Thomas Massie could force it if it hits 218 votes. Republicans like the tough line, but polls show even their voters think info's being hidden. It's a window into how Trump's team handles scandals, deflect, deny, and dig in.

FAA Warns of Flight Cuts at 40 Airports as Shutdown Hits Air Traffic Hard

The Federal Aviation Administration is floating widespread flight cancellations at 40 airports because of the shutdown, with air traffic controllers working unpaid and risking burnout. This is the first time the FAA has signaled such cuts, starting with smaller hubs like those in rural states, to ease the load on overworked staff.

Day 36 of the gridlock means 2 million feds are unpaid, and controllers are pulling 14-hour shifts, leading to 2,000 cancellations Tuesday alone. The FAA says it's safety first, but pilots and unions call it a symptom of the mess. Democrats pushing ACA extensions, Trump vetoing without border funds.

Siena polls show 58% of voters blaming the standoff, and this could tip more independents (62% anti-GOP) against Republicans. For travelers, it's real pain, holiday plans disrupted, $300 million daily in airline losses. The shutdown's not just D.C.; it's in the skies now. Fix it soon, or the holidays get grounded.

Trump Faces Economy Heat

A year after Trump won in 2024 on promises to fix the economy, voters are starting to question if it's delivering. Growth is at 2.8% for Q3, unemployment 4.1%, but inflation lingers at 3.2%, and the shutdown's $20 billion hit is making it worse, Dow down 400 Tuesday on uncertainty.

Trump touted golden age at a Miami forum Wednesday, but polls show his approval on the economy at 45%, down from 52% post-election. Last night's Democratic gains, 12 House flips, tied to personal hardship from gridlock, with 58% voters saying it hurt their wallets. Tariffs added $1,200 to average household costs, per Tax Foundation. Republicans blame Dems' obstruction, but independents (62% anti-GOP) see Trump's vetoes as the block. For 2026, it's a risk, if growth dips below 2%, the narrative flips.

That’s all for today, thanks for reading.

We’ll see you tomorrow!

— The PUMP Team