PUMP Newsletter

Asia Tour Rolls On as Shutdown Bites Back Home

Donald Trump's Asia jaunt is heating up a trade reset, and yesterday he signaled he's open to easing those fentanyl-linked tariffs on China before today's APEC meet with Xi Jinping in Seoul. From Air Force One, Trump kept it casual tossing in Nvidia AI chips as a potential sweetener while brushing off Taiwan talk:

First Oval face-time since January, and with Beijing's rare earth squeezes and U.S. port fees in play, this could thaw the freeze nobody expected.

The key play here is to rim those 20% duties on Chinese chemical exports fueling U.S. overdoses to 10%, dropping the overall levy on Beijing goods from 55% to 45%. A shaky truce expires on November 10, and Trump has been dangling a 100% hammer from November 1 if Xi stonewalls. In return? A year-long pause on China's rare earth curbs, per his optimistic APEC speech: "Hoping for a good deal for both," plus a quick U.S.-Korea pact.

Analysts like Neo Wang at Evercore ISI bet on a package, China locks down fentanyl precursors, buys Boeing jets, approves TikTok's U.S. sale, and guarantees rare earths; U.S. eases AI chip bans, shelves the 100% threat, and cuts tariffs by November 10.

Jack Smith Breaks Silence

Former special counsel Jack Smith resurfaced dropping a blunt reminder that his classified documents case against Donald Trump was built on rock-solid proof of wrongdoing. Speaking at University College London's Centre for Global Constitutional Democracy, Smith said simply:

It's a low-key gut-check from the prosecutor whose probes defined Trump's legal hellscape, now sidelined by DOJ rules barring charges against a sitting president. For more:

To jog your memory, the June 2023 indictment charged Trump with 40 felony counts for stashing sensitive materials in unsecured Mar-a-Lago spots, from a ballroom closet to his private office. Then came the obstruction, ignoring National Archives requests, hiding files during the FBI raid, and directing aides to mislead investigators.

Proving willful possession meant showing Trump knew it was illegal and the evidence piled up, pre-probe refusals, post-warrant schemes, faked searches. With Trump back in the White House, the case is frozen, but Smith's timing, weeks before midterms, feels pointed.

Trump Lands in South Korea for High-Stakes APEC Summit Amid Xi Tensions

President Trump's Asia tour climaxed in Seoul, where he touched down at Gimhae International Airport to a surprise YMCA blast from Air Force One speakers.

But beneath the pageantry lies high-wire diplomacy over a closed-door lunch with interim President Lee Jae-myung, Trump pressed for 20% hikes in Seoul's $1.2 billion annual tab for 28,500 U.S. troops, tying it to joint AI drone defenses against North Korea's 50+ missile tests this year. Lee, navigating Yoon Suk Yeol's ouster fallout and martial law scars, pledged $15 billion in new pacts, including cyber-intel swaps to blunt Chinese hacks.

Shutdown Day 29: Air Traffic Controllers Unpaid as Delays Grip Major Airports

As the U.S. government shutdown grinds past its fourth week, the pain has turned visceral for millions. Federal workers across the country opened bank apps to stark zeros on their first full paychecks, while benefit programs teeter on the brink of collapse. Air traffic controllers, essential but unpaid, triggered over 300 flight delays at hubs like Newark and Houston, with TSA lines snaking longer as officers stretch thin without compensation. And the fallout compounds daily.

SNAP benefits for 40 million low-income Americans risk lapsing by Friday, forcing food banks into overdrive amid 60% demand surges in states like Michigan. Active-duty troops, 1.3 million strong, stare down their first potential miss on October 31. A historic low that VP Vance vowed to avert via FY2026 reallocations, but only after intense White House huddles.

The Congressional Budget Office tallies $12 billion in weekly GDP erosion, with small businesses choking on delayed SBA loans and rural communities hit hardest by service blackouts.  Politically, it's trench warfare. Senate Democrats blocked the GOP's 13th clean continuing resolution on a 54-45 vote, demanding ACA subsidy shields for 24 million before yielding.

Senators Slam the Brakes on Brazil Trade War

The Republican-led US Senate has passed a measure that would terminate Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Brazilian imports, including coffee, beef and other products, in a rare bipartisan show of opposition to the president’s trade war. Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, tying them to what he has called a “witch-hunt” prosecution of his far-right ally, the former president, Jair Bolsonaro. The vote passed 52-48.

The resolution was led by Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat of Virginia, and seeks to overturn the national emergency that Trump has declared to justify the levies.

Though it is all but certain to stall in the US House, where the Republican-controlled chamber acted to pre-emptively shut down any attempt to block the president’s tariffs. In the unlikely event the measure were to reach the president’s desk, it would meet Trump’s veto.

Adelita Grijalva Stuck in Swearing-In Limbo

Adelita Grijalva swept her late father's House seat in Arizona's 7th District on September 23. But five weeks later, she's still unsworn, trapped in shutdown limbo as Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to reconvene the House until the Senate passes a GOP funding bill. No oath means no power. She can't hire staff, sign a lease, or access the printer in her Capitol office.

The House hasn't voted since October 19, mired in a prolonged district work period. Without official status, her father's old team was cleared out, computers gone, phones dead, and entry requires a chaperone.

Residents suffer most, VA claims and Social Security fixes stall in a veteran-rich district. The holdup may link to a Grijalva vote on releasing Jeffrey Epstein files. One Republicans hyped in 2024 but now sidestep, with Trump ties in the mix. GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani blames Sens. Kelly and Gallego for the delay but says Johnson will swear her in post-resolution.

That’s all for today, thanks for reading.

We’ll see you tomorrow!

— The PUMP Team